Most of the model runs this AM is starting to shift a little to the Left,the Nogaps has a piece of energy that is around N.Fl and then is quickly picked up the the ENE. The UKMET looks like a broad area of low pressure at 42hrs, and does not develop until its on it's way up the E Coast. One thing we know for sure is that what ever happens it will eventually make it up the East coast and that is one thing that all the models can agree on.
Check this discussion out, any one have differing opinions.
Toni

By the way the GFDL (for all you fans) has a 111kt hurricane sitting at the tip of Cuba in 120 hr. with a broad area of low pressure in the N. GOM. WOW what a change from its previous run. Wonder what it has in store for it's next run.
ALL GUESSES ARE BEING ACCEPTED.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE W GULF AREA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY MON FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE SW GULF BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF LATE
MON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. GFS/AVN CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. GFS TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS E NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS 200 MB WINDS INDICATE SOME SWLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA AND CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE NE OF THE BROAD
LOW. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY.
PERHAPS...THE UKMET MAY BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE 12Z RUN
INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
STRONGER BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR NE FLORIDA IN THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
MON AND JUST SOUTH OF W CUBA MON NIGHT. CURRENT OFFSHORE
FORECAST INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.

ATLC...NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS HERE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
BUT...WINDS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTEND OUTLOOK TODAY WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US/GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR NE
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO PULL THE CARIBBEAN LOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MOST LIKELY THE BAHAMAS
ON TUE.
THE NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT...AS IT KEEPS THE
CARIBBEAN LOW SOUTH OF CUBA.

BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET QUICKLY MERGE THE CARIBBEAN LOW WITH THE
BAROCLINIC LOW AND COLD FRONT EARLY WED. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG
SLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED E OF THE
FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
ATLC AND GULF MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N71W
TO CENTRAL CUBA THU. WINDS WILL DECREASE W OF THE FRONT...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE
ATLC WATERS.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN