i see what youre talking about.. i was thinking about two different aspects of the storm, intensity and track. to clarify, i want an irene intensity (cat 1 as it crosses land (cuba, bahamas) and a michelle track (threatens but bends away, no landfall). yeah, it looks goofy.. but cut me some slack. i'm not a die hard football guy, but even i went ballistic and was left mentally drained after yesterday. we squandered a chance to beat miami.. seized defeat from the jaws of victory.
if the teleconnections to the westpac work out, this storm misses the southeast u.s. coast. one different solution last night did catch my eye, the nogaps, which doesnt phase the storm, takes all the energy up off the southeast and has enough ridging below the negatively tilted trough in a few days to stall the system and drift it west. i dont favor this, but will be looking for more support as it differs greatly with other model solutions.
by the way, the broad low pressure area down there is fairly well defined. i would expect it to be a depression within 12 hours. 90% that this thing is a go.
HF 1534z13october