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Well I think that the system will develop - eventually. Convection continues to refire and cyclonic envelope looks promising, but system has only dropped a couple of mb in the past 8 hours. I'm not convinced that development will be as rapid as projected by most of the models. There is a possible outlier to its future track, i.e., if the evolution of the low off the northeast Florida - Georgia coasts occurs within the next 24 hours, the developing tropical cyclone may get left behind as the nor'easter moves rapidly up the coast and establishes a blocking pattern over the northeast Gulf. Should this happen, the potentially furure Marco would get trapped south of Cuba rather than pulled northeastward with the Atlantic coastal gale. For this reason, its still too early to come up with a 'comfortable' forecast track for this developing tropical system. On the medical front, looks like I'll be released from the hospital tomorrow afternoon - recovery was much improved today. If the thoughts noted above don't pan out, I'll just blame it on a fuzzy mind due to medical complications Cheers, ED |