Here's what the TPC had to say at 9:00pm:

1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W MOVING NW 10 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

I would note that they say 14N 82W. If that's the case, then at least some of the models run this afternoon started out wrong. NW at 10 would also throw them off. I'm still thinking this thing isn't going to come flying out of there as fast as some thought. Also, the low that was (or is) to become a noreaster on the east coast isn't just going "to form" there, a low has broken off a wave in the bahama's and should get tangled with the cold front coming through the area. I mention that only to point out that some of the longer range models seem to have the right idea, but got some minor details wrong. At this point, most would point toward Cuba taking a shot of some kind and then out through the bahama's. But first we have to see a system get named, and the Key West forecast would lead you to believe we're not going to see one:

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SWRN
CARIBBEAN...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE OUGHT TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...THEN ACCELERATE NE.

??????? Who knows why something moving NW at 10 would do what KW says? Maybe they have a pretty good handle on it. Your guess is as good as any of ours.

Joe in Jax
Won't even talk about the Jags. Bad weekend for North FLA football.............