Hey Ed D., good to hear you're recovering nicely, and hope you get home soon. Yeah, I've been debating whether or not the Real area of Low pressure will come north yet or not. Thought the idea the GFDL had this morning was good, but looking at the satellite pix tonight, I'm wondering if most of this system will get dragged north and get wrapped eventually into the storm of the Carolinas. Pressures are not very low where the area of concern is, but perhaps they are falling futher north bbetween NE Honduras and Jamaica. Models are having a tough time with this, and I think the 18Z GFDL can be thrown out as it has this low too far east IMO. This one has me stumped right now, but if we get a Marco down there then maybe we'll get some better model output. There's an awful lot of real estate between Honduras and the Carolinas so a lot can happen. Earlier runs shifted from keeping these systems separate, to merging them. Still a blurry picture. Trouble with systems like this is that they can surprise you. If the system is actually taking shape SW of Jamaica and moving NNW, and if it gets a chance to intensify more than expected with the rapid movement of the AVN et el, this could get dicey for South Florida. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Cheers!!