No argument from me. The southern jet has actually moved further east in the Atlantic. Anything coming off of the African west coast in the next couple of months will meet up with some rather significant shear. I'd anticipate that some of the low-level waves will remain intact, but I wouldn't expect them to amount to much until they get near 60W. The ITCZ is also running about 3 degrees further south than one would expect at this time of year - probably a direct correlation to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High. In April, Bettye and I were cruising the north coast of South America. In Venezuela the rain was so heavy that we just remained on board. That same day, Bonaire got 4 inches of rain - 20 percent of their annual total in one day - almost unheard of down there. Water temp was 82 degrees! The large wave that came off of Africa a few days ago is simply too far south to spin up, but it could mean another wet period for northern S.A. As we've seen over the past couple of years, certain patterns can take a long time to change, but I've seen enough already this year to believe that the pattern has indeed changed. An overly active season - no, but a dangerous season for the Gulf and Southeast U.S. - yes. The pattern in place for each particular storm determines the threat area, so if the ridge should weaken as a storm makes the turn, then the threat shifts northward to the Carolinas and New England. If the ridge holds strong - well, thats why I've got the pre-drilled plywood - sure hope that I don't have to use it (so does my son - he'll be the one who'll have to put it up)

Cheers,
ED