this will be a tropical storm upon recon. convectively very healthy, apparently stacked, over the nw caribbean in october with a classic synoptic config.
probably going to reach hurricane, but things become iffy past cuba. still not thinking on a direct hit for southern florida, but a close enough call to give plenty of rain and wind. beyond there the storm begins transitioning into an extratropical system through absorption... looks like it is going too slow to phase in to a single superbomb. think the most likely scenario is the storm phases in east of georgia, as the extratropical low is deepening and moving northward near hatteras on wednesday.. the low peaks in intensity late thu/early friday as it passes new jersey and new england.. occluding by the time it reaches maine late on the 17th.
bastardi outlines three scenarios that various models have been harping on, factoring in his considerations for the warm water off the northeast. i'm pretty much with his absorption option, but not quite at its worst.
think we get at least one more after this one. bastardi saying the season is over. not ready to buy that.
HF 1442z14october