Good discussion of the situation from NWS Mobile...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

WEATHER PATTERN PROVES DIFFICULT IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FORECAST
AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO FEATURES. 1) A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND 2) A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF.

<snip>

THE SECOND
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF WHAT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO BE AN INVERTED TROF OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SLIDE THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ETA SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE AVN IS MORE ROBUST...CLOSING OFF A
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ON
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE AVN MODEL
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE INTO THE SYSTEM
OVER WARM GULF WATER TEMPERATURES (26-28C>80-83F). IF THE AVN
SOLUTION IS BELIEVED...THEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THAN WHAT WOULD BE THE EXPECTED IN THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS
ADVERTISED IN THE ETA. ALL IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
GULF. STAY TUNED. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL BE INTRODUCED MUCH OF
THE TIME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUDS AND
EXPECTED RAIN COVERAGES.