| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 05 2002 08:55 PM |
|
Re: Gulf Disturbance
|
I still think it's 50/50. After I made my prediction, I found that they had done the BAMM/LBAR/ETC model runs last night around 11:30Z. Each of the runs brought the SHIP and DSHP estimates to near TS strength then weakened it by 72 hours back to TD status. In 72 hours, the models went as follows:
BAMD 26.4/91.1(Not far from the initial position of 24.6 90.1)
BAMM 25.9/92.9 (indicated a westerly drift)
A98E 30.7/90.5 (somewhere near Folsom, LA)
LBAR 29.4/91.7 (south of New Iberia)