far as i can tell the spin in the caribbean is an upper low with plenty of surface convection nearby. nothing that menacing in the basin tonight. the models as usual are feeding us cause to wave monger. still a lot of shear out there.
over in the eastpac there is less hesitation for development.. a pretty good disturbance is moving along the mexican riviera. pretty good odds it will be boris over the weekend, and with its slow progress it is a flood threat. be interested to know what the normal pattern is during a neutral to slightly warm ENSO year when the eastpac season kicks off in earnest.