or is it? this one is a bunch of convection induced by upper divergence or something, and seems to be a bit off from whatever weak surface trough there is. what interests me more than the big burst near jamaica is the slow moving, sparse, less sheared convection near the caymans that is right under the narrow upper ridge axis, and apparently near an ill defined surface trough. if something is going to try and go, it will be there, so i reckon. but it needs to do a lot more than that. i'm thinking that in about two weeks as the summer pattern over the u.s. matures, shear in the early season breeding zone will become less hostile, and less of an overall westerly flow will dominate but rather a bunch of upper cutoff systems. right now i'm also starting to think that the kickoff for this season, which will be stretched out rather than one big burst of activity, will be in late july or early august. there might be maybe an odd system before then, but i'm betting against much activity before about july 15th.