I seriously doubt that we will see any development from the disturbance in the SW Caribbean. There is barely any convection, a very weak circulation at best and it is very disorganized. In addition, none of the models are predicting development. there is also moderate shear and a small pocket of subsidence to its north.

FORECAST: This unorganized tropical disturbance will begin to move northward. It will then move over the Yucatan and exit the coast near Merida. The system will then get picked up by an approaching trough moving out of the northern GOM. The trough will cause the disturbance to turn NE or ENE towards Florida bringing occasionaly heavy rain to parts of the peninsula.