still waiting for the kickoff. west carib doesnt look all that impressive.. what convection there is is mostly related to an upper trough, the surface turning is weak and broad and totally unfocused. joe b was talking about a low springing up and harassing floridians later on, but the fierce weather hasnt come calling just yet. of course there was that storm last july on the west florida coast that never got organized but still brought some good strong winds.. so it wont necessarily take a tropical system to do it. confidence remains low until some sort of surface low takes over in this big mess.
also IMO i've always thought that there should be some time deliniation for the peak part of hurricane season, august 15th to october 15th, to separate it from the rest. theres a big difference between june 4th and september 18th when it comes to hurricane frequency and danger, but both are just another day in the hurricane season.