notice how the clouds around florida are now trying to arc. most of it is the upper low splitting away and pulling west, bending the moisture train.. yet there's evidence that a sfc low is trying to develop on the NE coast.. as it is part of the same trough that has been strung from the yucatan channel to hatteras for days. the formation of a low itself up there wouldnt necessarily mean anything.. if anything it would move inland.. the very fact that a low is trying to form on this trough axis, as several models have been suggesting for days, is what is important. a couple models have put a low off southwest florida, which would mean a lot more. thats what to look for if you want a storm, so keep the eyes peeled.
the BOC disturbance hasnt gone away, hasnt moved at all. now i think back to a couple days ago when the ncep global was putting a nondescript low down there about now, and leaving it for days. it's right near the coast, but weak systems can jump around and reform were convection to burst elsewhere.. so if some were to pop further out over the gulf.. different scenario. right there on the coast i sort of doubt its chances.. so it would have to relocate before taking it seriously.
thats the deal with both of these systems.. the look is fair to good, but the location is wrong. things could change, though.