basic problems with either system-- shear and/or proximity to land havent changed. neither has moved much. though convectively naked the real sfc low on the trough axis near florida is off naples now, where it needs to be for this thing to spin up. the negative is that the jet max south of the upper cutoff is going right over it. shear is around 40kt.. not ferocious, but enough to keep it checked, until the upper wind field changes. were the low to elongate north south this weak low would be under the upper divergent flow east of the cutaway system, and convection would be going nuts around it. thats all the difference a couple hundred miles makes. as the whole thing pulls away to the west it may get its chance, since the surface trough has barely moved for days. slow northwestward movement is indicated on most model forecasts.
the BOC system is virtually unchanged. the convection went away but quickly reformed, further east this time. if whatever low pressure is trying to work its way down from the mid levels shifts to this new convective center, it will be better located, not on the very western rim of the BOC. still very close to land. the shear situation will probably worsen with this system, but continue to support convection. the longer it persists, the better its chances that a surface low will cook off.
suffice to say i think neither has an even chance of development, but at least theyre making things interesting.
my bet was for a july first storm, mid to late in the month. the may system gave my bid a good scare, now these twin disturbances are threatening it.
first night of astronomical summer and the watch continues.