Well in my opinion & I must say I am not a MET.,but in my opinion El Nino will be a minimal factor if any factor at all this season,first check out the SST's of the equatorial coast of South America they are still cooling at this time & running 4 to 5 degrees below normal & at times expanding westward, 2.the WPAC is very quiet as far as Tropical Storms & Hurricanes go,unusual for this time of year & even more unusual in a so called developing El Nino event, 3.the monsoon rains in India are above normal this year another sign that El Nino is either in its extremely early stages or basically not there at all.However the Pros over at Noaa expect some sort of weak to moderate El Nino event developing but it should not reach its maximum strengnth until late fall,for now EL Nino is EL Nowhere.