yesterday i was thinking 20% on the east-of-florida system..
well, take it up to about 35. pretty much every model is developing a low east of the state today and taking it northeast. by thursday morning more or less every one has it east of virginia as a 1008-1010mb type low.
so where's the low now? well there is a lot of turning around florida.. some of it is related to the upper trough across the SE, but there is turning below it at the mid levels and weak low level troughing too. basically two events need to happen for this system to come to life--1)sustained burst of convection to focus a dominant vortex 2)associated pressure falls.... the question is, can the atmospheric dynamics in the region support it? i always wonder if sea-breeze convection will trigger such a system, when all it needs is a little focused push.
as usual exactly where such a focal point comes into existence is what will decide the future of such a system. the further east the low develops, the less likely the system will come close enough to be a bother. on the other hand closer in, say over florida or right on the east coast, there is less of push from the upper trough since it wont be connected to the jet max on the trough's east flank. this way you get an erratic system, maybe one that doesnt move steadily northeast and catch the next amplification so cleanly. maybe a stair stepper or one with small cyclonic loops and hairpins.
just a word of mention that this next amplification, a shortwave zipping along for new england, is forecast to re-establish the upper system over the canadian maritimes and make an amplified trough, one that will reflect down through the bermuda ridge and make a disturbance well off the east coast next week... by the ecmwf. mrf also has a big amplification about 8-10 days away.. all that said, i dont put stock in either system, they are model fantasies days away. what i do put stock in is the continuation of the pattern they are suggesting. maybe the troughs arent backing up so well, but they are still splitting. i heard bastardi talk about it, i looked for it, i saw it... these sorts of summertime amplifications can send weather into the subtropics this time of year where it usually isnt, where it could possibly stir up.
since the african waves this year have been rather lackluster so far (the early season waves were pretty mean looking in previous years), this action of upper systems cutting away is probably the only way something will develop in the near future.
by the way, anybody who wants some good summer climatology education, read bastardi today. props to the man. guys like him and d'aleo at intellicast, ya gotta love their stuff. weather reporting usually has this canned feel to it, they break the mold and make freakin editorials, with their forecasts and ideas staked out and defended, and taken past where the risk concerned meteorology community normally dares to take the public. sort of like the meteorological equivalent of o'reilly.
anyhow, nuff said. watch the system around florida, and even the goofy little convective trough east of bermuda if you want to miss nothing, no matter how small.
HanKFranK aiken, sc 1535z02july