Well it seems like things are finally kicking off! The system to the NNE of Bermuda has become increasingly better organised on satellite imagery today, and i think it may be declared our first Tropical Cyclone of the season at some point today. Possibly by the 5.30pm TWO. The convection has consolidated over the apparent LLCC, with low level clouds evident to the northeast and the deepest convective activity located in the remaining 3 quadrants. I think it is too early to predict just what might happen to this system, but judging from the appearance on imagery already, i would guess it will be a strong TD, and may reach a weak TS within 24 to 36 hours. Maximum winds (now i amgoing out on a limb!) will not exceed 45 mph with this system before it weakens or gets absorbed.

As for the area to the SE of the NC coast, well it is poorly organised and i dont see much happening with it.

Another area of interest is that which has developed to the south of the Florida Panhandle. Poorly organised at the moment, but worth watching.

Well i will no doubt be posting again soon as this Bermuda System develops!

Rich B

StormWarn2000 IWN