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these systems should be named 93L and 94L based on previous order, and the nrl page has them this way.. the noaa dvorak page doesnt. 90 and 91, it says. thus the confusion. for 93L i dont think it matters. the convection has become disjoined, and the low level circulation is further elongating as it begins to merge in to the digging deep layer cold system to the north. nhc wont bother with it anymore. 94L is a different story. it is further south and conditions overhead are going to improve. an upper jet is splitting to its northwest, and this diffluent jet is forecast by some models to come closer SE.. this could provide ideal ventilation. right now some of 94Ls fire is stolen by a big complex over the eastern carolinas and another along the frontal zone to the north. this one i think will make a development run tomorrow. other interests.. further south of 94L is some spotty tailing convection under tranquil upper conditions.. it could at least spawn another complex to worry about. nogaps is developing a closed gulf system next week now, and all are moving a surface disturbance west to texas. considering the ongoing flood situation, a tropical system could really complicate things. so watch the light shear zone in the NE gulf, where the upper system is setting up. development up there would almost surely mean a landfalling gulf system. we could go active tomorrow, it's a clear possibility. HanKFranK aiken, SC 0409z06july |