Good morning to all. We still have our low pressure area/low pressure trof in the GOMEX this morning and development still appears possible, especially into next week (early to mid week). I looked at the IR-4 GOMEX loop this morning and made a few observations:
1. The convection associated with this system needs to have more persistance. In the early frames of the loop there was no convection but early this morning more started to develop.
2. The main area of convection seems to be staying northwest of the circulation. This is not a good trend for a developing system. There are only clouds and isolated showers around the circulation. Hardly anything to cause concern.
3. The cloud pattern with the low worsened over night. Just sligtly, though. Overnight the clouds around the circulation had a rather distinct circulation to them. This morning it has become less well organized. This needs to improve as well.
4. As many have asked, what will be the focusing mechanism? It may just be good old time. As HF said earlier, the front along the GA, FL, and AL borders appears to be washing out quickly. I don't see how this will have positive influence on the system.
All in all, this system will be slow to develop (if it does), and the folks in Texas need to hope that this system gets blasted by a patch of sheer and dry air. If not, sometime next week could be a real washout for Texas. Development or not.
Kevin