No telling on El Nino. Seems that it's been more La Nina to netural for the last couple of years (at least in the eastern zones). Today's SSTA's look pretty neutal still. As for the Atlantic, it's mostly "slightly warmer than average" except right along the entire East and Gulf Coasts of the CONUS.

I don't have much of a handle on the 2004 season yet. I'd expect it (on a hunch) to differ from 2002-2003. We'll have to check the water temperature profiles in May and also continue to watch where the the trofs are lining up (and how far west they retrograde) We'll have to watch the EastPac for any deviations from neutral and how they play into the peak season (late August - mid October). Many may recall that March-June period is the most statisically difficult period to predict oncoming El Ninos. And we'll have to watch precipitation profiles for the winter and spring in the SE.

Anyway, I'd guess that the season (#'s wise) should be closer to average than the last 2 years, but that's a real stretch right now. Absent a strong El Nino, I'd figure about 12 NS is as good of a place as any to build off of.

Steve