LI Phil
(User)
Mon Apr 05 2004 10:38 AM
Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....

Hmmmm. 14/8/3. That's what I predicted back in December. One part of the forecast should put a bit of caution in the minds of Florida and East Coast residents this year:

"Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. For example, landfall observations during the last 100 years show that a greater number of intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes strike the Florida and U.S. East Coast during years of (1) increased NTC and (2) above-average North Atlantic SSTA* conditions."

Of course, this doesn't mean the EC will see a hit, but there's a higher probability than usual.

The official start of the season is still a long way away, but it should prove to be a very interesting season if Gray et. al. verify.



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