yeah rich, i do. its april its april its april, that's not supposed to happen. still, i've been watching it too since happening to notice that conspicuous non-frontal low on the models for this weekend, back on late wednesday. checked the visible loop twice today; same hunch. didn't know the nhc discussion had anything, suppose i'll have to go read it. after all the out-of-season systems lately the nhc has its guard up. since we're on a run of oddballs, why not have an easter tropical cyclone?
before reading your post i was going to only mention the sst profile in the eastpac.. cold tongue more pronounced than it has been for a couple of years. ENSO looks to be tilting back that way--expect my 11 system guesscast for 2004 from november will tank worse than any yet, at this point.
HF 2102z09april