may rarely provides a tropical cyclone, and most of those will result from a subtropical hybrid-type system (except late in the month when the gulf and western caribbean will occasionally support activity). globals have a deep layer low cutting off east of bermuda near 50w (the system is splitting away from a larger trough near bermuda right now).. mrf nudges it east, euro stalls it and maintains it for a few days. ssts in the area are in the low to mid 70s, but it probably merits an occasional glance.
good to see steve dropping by, giving a summary of the bastardi scoop. has me thinking some. bastardi and the agencies/gray are generally in agreement on past analogs. personally i've been envisioning a less profound version of 1990 (pattern, not activity).. and combining it with those late 90s/early 00s seasons.. what comes out is an active year where the gate is mostly closed, but occasionally opens near the east coast.. and carib/gulf activity gets booted westward. still going to stand by 11/6/3, though i really expect i've bid low. one other factoid will help us balance the equation.. the itcz. it was at unusually low latitude when the south atlantic activity occurred--have a feeling it's going to probably play possum and act weird during some part of the upcoming season. mjo will undoubtedly control when it becomes productive. also expect a goodly number of systems to pop out of the subtropics.. probably not much starting in the caribbean except maybe late season. maybe unimaginative.. when specific patterns can be resolved (mid-latitude trough-ridge wavelengths are long, slowly progressive for now).. i'll try and come up with something. if this pattern persists into summer it will make for fairly predictable longtrackers, and lots of those systems than hang and fester near frontal tails.
HF 1938z07may