What's going on HF? Nice analysis. I'm thinking this is a fish spinner, NW FL, South Texas/Mexico year overall with maybe one TS or H making its way toward either LA, MS or AL. I gotta do a whole lot more research in the next 3 weeks, but one thing that stands out is the -3+ SSTA's across most of the Gulf. Should that remain, the window definitely won't be open for anything really strong, but I wouldn't rule out a 2 or 3. Joe B's comments were wholly based on an El Nino NOT developing because if one did, then it could have major implications. I read a Dericho post over at storm 2 k where the possibilities of the twin systems in the Indian Ocean could portend and onset of El Nino at some point (assuming the possibility of twin systems to follow in the west pac). I didn't read the entirety of the position papers, and Cycloneye's response "so you're saying it might be 7 months down the line" seemed much more reasonable based on current Pacific water temperature profiles.

Anyway, with a ST Trof hanging between 90-100 again and with the splits near the east coast backing their way into the Gulf, they can be activated by waves coming through (as we have seen before many times). So I'm not yet ready to predict a dud year for the Gulf overall, but I gotta think there's no way to sustain the level of activity from 2002 and 2003.

Steve