Still no update from TSR, however, NOAA does have an ENSO update. Here is a link to a global SST loop. Let the loop continue to run and eventually a slide-show type of update should appear. It indicates neutral conditions for three more months. My own thoughts are that neutral ENSO will exist at least through October - thus having no impact one way or another on the upcoming tropical Atlantic season (although I'm sure that other factors will). Notice that the SST anomalies are below normal over the entire GOM and that this has happened in just the last couple of weeks. Also just about the entire north Atlantic anomaly has gone from slightly positive to zero in the same time period - interesting.
I'll try to give some thoughts to analog years in a new main page article this weekend.

Global SST Animation

Oh, and to throw my (tropical storm force) WAG into the wind, I'll pick July 31st (plus or minus one week) for Alex.
Cheers,
ED