Here's a note from Joe B for any fans who haven't signed up for the 30 day free trial yet. He's going to post his landfall intensity forecast sometime in mid-June but promised a sneak peak at the end of the month, "The May hurricane discussion will give you enough of an idea of what we are looking at to understand the kind of season it will be in general terms as far as landfall activity goes. The current thinking is for more than the normal intensity rating on my scale ( the explanation is available on last years forecast for this) with focus of greatest threat of a major hurricane on the gulf coast or Florida, rather than the Carolinas as last year. But that is a thumbnail sketch and the painting has yet to be completed. "

I don't know where I stand yet. A lot of different respectable weather sources are pointing in a lot of different directions. You want to take the path of least resistance, but I'm still hung up on Atlantic H2O temp profiles, whether or not we are in for primarily a negative or positive NAO and/or SOI this year. While blowing some of the numbers (getting semi-close), I've done pretty good with landfalls the last few years. I've got a feeling I'll be dumbed back down to rank amateur after this season! But I will take the leap of faith before June 1st!

Steve