notable only because it keeps recurring... gfs is developing low pressure in the western caribbean and surging the energy out to the northeast in the 8-14 day range.. this feature has appeared on several runs. too far out to take seriously, added to that fact that it is may. also of note the model weakens the subtropical jet and draws the itcz northward near its early summer position.
i'm not sure how much creedence this model output deserves, but it will keep me glancing at the western caribbean around the end of next week, and watching for those seasonal pattern modifications.
interesting that one of the two areas running way behind for hurricane strikes (big bend/florida west coast, charleston to melbourne) has a bastardi bullseye on it. area is vulnerable most of the season, just has had candidates from its potential threat source region pushed too far east or west in recent years.
eastpac season kick off tomorrow. probably nothing doing through next week though.
HF 1637z14may