However, Dr. Gray has recently said the correlation between Sahel rainfall and tropical cyclone formation has broken down for reasons unknown, and he no longer considers it a factor in the development of his seasonal forecasts.

West Gulf looks interesting---except it is May, and a rope cloud (sign of lack of tropical development) has appeared. However, appears there may be a vorticity center behind the main cloud mass, close to Tx/Mx border.

The Orbital Cyclone page did opine the season may (no pun intended) start early.

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