climate slowly changes all the time; the sahel rainfall correlation means/meant something, but recently something else is overshadowing its significance. 'with extreme complexity' is a good description for how the earth operates--all sorts of things are going on at once, some we understand, some we don't, and the relative significance of any one changes given the situation. the sahel correlation isn't working, and i'm just as happy... the u.s. east coast has taken only ONE major hurricane hit in the last decade. that's statistically way off the mark. the gulf coast hasn't fared much worse.
by the way, steve.. it was your earlier mention that bastardi was noting a surge out of the tropics that got me looking there to begin with. you brought it to the table here first; i should make mention that i'm only making a secondhand sighting. a further note would be that there seems to be an mjo wave propagating eastward from the westpac (possibly triggered indian ocean systems around a week ago, now the area east of the phillipines is active). wish i had an idea when it gets to this side of the big blue ball. maybe end of the month. the model has the suspicious feature's first manifestations around late next week, into the following week... probably too early for mjo to get across. if it keeps peeking by tuesday/wednesday.. get psyched. may disturbances usually only give us an invest that shears out.. it's been more than twenty years since one went 'all the way'. low probability event if it goes.
eastpac all quiet.
HF 1623z15may