Models are mostly neutral to warm in the distant term. They've been saying that off and on since La Nina came back up a few years ago and has kind of held on in the EPAC zones. Positive ENSO in the zones in this hemisphere make for a stronger subtropical jet stream (SW influence) and add shear (at various MB heights) to the western Altantic, Gulf and Caribbean. El Nino years tend to have surpressed overall activity but are also known to harbor some of the more vicious storms of the last few decades (Andrew, Camile, Betsy and others).

Steve