Another season will soon be underway, although it could still be quite some time before the first named storm arrives on the scene (visit the Storm Forum for details). A cordial welcome to our new members and a 'welcome back' to all of our 'frequent trackers'. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season:

ENSO/SST - the equatorial Pacific should remain neutral at least through October, thus no hinderance from an El Nino and no aid from a La Nina throughout the season. Around October, a weak El Nino may finally get underway, but by then the season will be rapidly on the decline. SST anomalies are neutral across the entire North Atlantic, except that the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east of Florida are below normal - and this is a recent event. The temperature anomaly in the GOM have declined just during the latter part of April and the first part of May - and a warmer than normal Atlantic has become neutral during the same time period. In the Pacific, negative anomalies have increased along the equator from the coast of South America to about 125W longitude; not a true La Nina, but enough to keep El Nino in check for awhile.

The Southern Jet - is finally on the wane after maintaining unusual strength throughout March and April. It is slowly beginning to lift to the north and weaken in the central and eastern Atlantic but is still hanging on in the western Atlantic.

ITCZ - has been all over the place this winter. In February it still looked like June. In March it was nudged far to the south - at times even south of the equator - and produced a uniquely active season in the South Atlantic with a hurricane and a couple of tropical storms. In April it recovered northward again in the eastern half of the basin, but it is still far to the south of where it normally would be in the western third of the Atlantic. Above the equator, it is still non-existent over Africa.

The Forecast - As stated earlier in the Storm Forum, I still anticipate a normal season and with the El Nino delay, a later season with 10 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 (perhaps even 3) major hurricanes. Later this summer, strong waves may well exit the west African coast, weaken as they cross the central Atlantic and then re-emerge in the Caribbean. Active zones are still difficult to nail down, but the Western Caribbean, Eastern Gulf, all of Florida and the Bahamas seem to be the areas of greatest risk. Later in the season you can add eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes to the list.

Analog Years - This year there seems to be no such thing as a 'good' analog year. I've spent quite a bit a time over the past few months looking at the past 100 seasons and the only year that appears frequently in most of the analysis is 1963. Other years that had some merit were 1906, 1924, 1926, 1945 and 1949. I notice that even Dr Gray had trouble with this category since all of his analog selections in the December Outlook never made it to the April Forecast selections.

A reminder to all to make your posts in the proper Forum and to keep a courteous decorum. It matters not whether you are new to the excitement of storm tracking or whether you have been doing this for 50 years - we all visit here for the same reasons - to learn, to teach and to share. A special thanks to Mike and John for giving us a chance to do this, and best wishes to all of you as we start another season.
Cheers,
ED

Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

For 'first storm' starting dates, see the Storm Forum.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.