el nino.. i'll believe it when i see it. like steve said, models always calling for it for years, but it hasnt done a whole lot lately. weak-moderate one in 2002 didn't knock a big hole in our numbers, a noticeable one, but not a season-ender.
gfs still calling for that disturbance, still reconfiguring the atlantic shear pattern in a week. nothing to say other than that.. besides that the westpac is running wide open right now.
i've got a mind that the pacific sst config will resemble last year's. also suspect that a spread out, above average season is on the way.. that belies my unchanging numbers.. 11/6/3.
HF 0448z17may