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Another mention out of the NWS in Melbourne NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 310 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004 WEAK H50 TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX DROPS INTO THE WRN GOMEX AND GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE (GFS/GGEM/ECM/NGP) WANT TO MAINTAIN AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS FEATURE...DRIFTING IT SLOWLY EAST TWD THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND AIDING IN THE SPINUP OF WHAT WOULD BE A HYBRID OR AT THE VERY LEAST A BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WRN/CTRL CARIBBEAN. PLAYING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE FOR A MINUTE...DEVELOPMENT/ADVERTISED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WOULD TIGHTEN PGRAD UP QUITE A BIT ALONG THE FL SE COAST TWD DAY 7. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS TAKING PLACE AS THE H50 GOMEX LOW THAT WAS ADVERTISED A WEEK OR TWO AGO BY THE GFS/ECM NEVER MATERIALIZED...AND IT APPEARS THAN SFC DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT - I.E. STRENGTH OF THE H50 LOW/H25 JETSTRK. WILL GO WITH THE UKMET SOLN...WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER AT H50...AND SHOWS NOTHING AT THE SFC. |