PFSThunder
(Weather Watcher)
Mon May 17 2004 12:00 PM
Re: Around the Corner

Another mention out of the NWS in Melbourne

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

WEAK H50 TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX DROPS INTO THE WRN GOMEX AND
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE (GFS/GGEM/ECM/NGP) WANT TO MAINTAIN AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN
THIS FEATURE...DRIFTING IT SLOWLY EAST TWD THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND
AIDING IN THE SPINUP OF WHAT WOULD BE A HYBRID OR AT THE VERY LEAST
A BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WRN/CTRL CARIBBEAN.
PLAYING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE FOR A MINUTE...DEVELOPMENT/ADVERTISED TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE WOULD TIGHTEN PGRAD UP QUITE A BIT ALONG THE FL SE
COAST TWD DAY 7. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS TAKING
PLACE AS THE H50 GOMEX LOW THAT WAS ADVERTISED A WEEK OR TWO AGO BY
THE GFS/ECM NEVER MATERIALIZED...AND IT APPEARS THAN SFC DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT - I.E. STRENGTH OF
THE H50 LOW/H25 JETSTRK. WILL GO WITH THE UKMET SOLN...WHICH IS MUCH
WEAKER AT H50...AND SHOWS NOTHING AT THE SFC.




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