STD's conjur images of colorful (though sometimes nasty) issues /don't delete it Ed!

Last night's global models (the 00Z's) all have different takes in the short-term.

My preference is for the CMC which I think has the best handle on the system although it may be over-intensifying it a bit. The CMC forms the system south of Cuba and moves it up just to the east of the southern tip of Florida (= Miami in the sphere of influence).

The US Model suite takes the system too far east before nudging it off to the NE. It crosses the strait between Cuba and Hispanola. While it does have a handle inasmuch as it shows a system, it is too biased east. As everyone knows, the GFS has problems in the early season with heat transfer from the tropics to the horse lattitudes and always tends to imply an eastern trof.

The UKMet is similar to the Canadian Model, but it is much slower and further south. The UKMet is tending to move the system toward Western Cuba and wanting to shunt it off into the SE GoM. It keeps a stronger ridge north of the system.

Yesterday's 12z ECMWF (The "European") (as noted in a reply to HF above) all but discounts the system and slows it down substantially from the 12z run on Monday. But the 12z run from Monday is very similar to what the CMC saw last night. I think there's a compromise somewhere.

Anyway, let me go see what Joe B has to say. I'll paraquote him when I get back...

For the future:

The overall pattern, which favors much more trof in the West this year than last year and much more ridge where it was cool and wet last summer, starts coming back and we see the trof heading into the West again, forcing the ridge that has backed up northeastward. This may or may not split the southern part of the trof away for it to turn southward then southwestward over the Gulf for a June development threat over the Gulf. Given the state of the SOI and the warmth of the water ahead of season close to the East Coast supporting feedback and ridge development, looking for systems to split away from the northern branch is something that must be considered...

For now:

In any case, that ridge builds, forces that piece southeastward where it starts to tickle the buildup of heat over the southwest Caribbean. In model world, all modelling I see is now seeing the falling of pressures in the southwest Caribbean, but the European has backed off on the extreme idea it had through yesterday. The Canadian is back to being strongest. The GFS, of course, was too quick on its alley out yesterday, having its usual problems with feedback out of the tropics. But the point here is I have no changes from the ideas of the past couple of days. We should see slow northward expansion of the convection near Panama and low pressure will probably take shape by Friday and start slowly north-northeastward for the weekend. Folks in Florida have to pay attention. Given the overall pattern, there is a chance that this supplies the base for the trof late next week to feed into. Oddly enough, the longer it takes to come up, the better the chance for that as a trof coming through the Northeast early next week out in front of the main digging later next week may fool around with it, if it's far enough.

Beings that it is only May, there is certainly no lock that it develops. But the worry here, as stated in previous posts, is that a burst of development is coming across the tropics, and we look like we could be far enough ahead of schedule to do it. Obviously this is something that is catching my eye.
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Damn. Joe B ripped me off!

Steve