LI Phil
(User)
Thu May 20 2004 03:59 PM
EPAC-ATL Correlation

OK, I spent the better part of an hour on this. A while back I asked Ed if very active EPAC seasons corresponded to strong US mainland landfalls (as he used 1992 as an example of an active EPAC year with relatively little Atlantic activity.) Of course, in 1992 we had Andrew. So I did a little research to see if indeed active EPAC years corresponded to less active Atlantic years, and checked if there were any CAT 3 or above US landfalls. Here's what I found:

Since 1949, there have been 24 seasons where the EPAC has produced at least 15 named systems:
1959 (15 named storms), 1967 (17), 1968 (18), 1970 (19), 1971 (18), 1974 (18), 1975 (15), 1976 (15/5 major canes), 1978 (19/7), 1981 (15), 1982 (20), 1983 (21/8), 1984 (18/6), 1985 (22/8), 1986 (17), 1987 (18), 1989 (17), 1990 (20/6), 1992 (24/9), 1997 (17), 2000 (17), 2001 (15), and 2003 (16).

Checking the Atlantic for those years, I found that in some years there were very few storms, and in others there were a fair amount. I also checked if there were any major US hits, and indeed, there were a couple of years where there were, but by and large, there appears to be no correlation between the two. Here's the corresponding Atl. years, with the number of storms and major US landfallers (these data are from Unysis, so I think the strength at landfall is a tad high, but I'll go with it anyway):

1959 (11/CAT 4 Gracie hits South Carolina); 1967 (8/CAT 4 Beulah hits Tex/Mex border); 1968 (8); 1970 (10/CAT 3 Celia hits South Texas); 1971 (13); 1974 (7/CAT 4 Carmen strikes Louisiana); 1975 (8/CAT 3 Eloise hits Florida Panhandle); 1976 (8); 1978 (11); 1981 (10); 1982 (5); 1983 (4); 1984 (12); 1985 (11/CAT 3 Elena LA/MS border; CAT 3 Gloria Long Island, New England); 1986 (6); 1987 (6); 1989 (11/CAT 4 Hugo hits South Carolina); 1990 (14); 1992 (6/CAT 5 Andrew strikes South Fla.); 1994 (7); 1997 (7); 2000 (14); 2001 (15) and 2003 (16).

So, yes there were some major canes to strike the US when there was elevated EPAC activity, but (I did take statistics in college, but that was a looooooooong time ago), I can't see any true statistical correlation between the two.

And, since there were 11 of the 24 years with at least 10 named storms, there is definitely no overwhelming evidence that active EPAC years correlate to inactive Atlantic ones.

Phew, that was a mouthful. I'm just hoping we get to the next page because this widescreen is killing me.

If anybody wants to check if the years listed above were el nino's, be my guest.

Sorry for the length of this post.

LI Phil



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