The tropical wave off of the african coast will die off in the next 12-24 hours as it encounters cool water. Anything generally east of 50w has less then a 5% chance before July.
I never mentioned the Carribean mid level disturbance forming late this weekend into early next week cause the system wont be all at the surface. Questions on calling this truly tropical if it even forms at all. Looking at the posts I will have to agree with fellow mets Jason and ED. Remember last year alot from the models show the same thing coming out of the carribean around this time of year and the models after a week finally gave up on it. I would tend to disregard the models until something does develop. Canadian Model I genenerally disregard the most as it changes from run to run and the GFS has its usual feedback problems.
scottsvb