i missed out on yesterday.. got pretty active around here. whether the tropics do the same this weekend is still up for grabs. fairly large area of disturbed weather, as prescribed by models, check. basic shear pattern, check. broad, weak low-mid level turning, check. very unfocused right now.. looks more like an e-w monsoon trough than anything else. if it can stay south of the subtropical jet and have a dominant center develop along it, we're in business.
i'd say 35% for development now. nrl puts invests on lots of systems.. when ssd gives it a dvorak rating i'll get really interested. longer it stays south, better the chances it will get organized. it will probably come mostly north, and stay relatively weak if it does develop. a system at 45kt or so would probably get jerked out with the 200mb jet.
thinking leaning back to steve's ideas, recalling the gfs tendency to treat tropical systems like shortwaves. i seriously doubt anything gets into the gulf, and somewhat doubt florida gets company (if it comes west it will be a naked low level swirl, says brain).. strange idea that a system has just as much chance developing near abc islands as it does north of panama..
but of course 65% that invest get any further.
scottsvb, have to opine on your earlier statement.. any nonfrontal closed low pressure that forms in the caribbean and has gale force winds is tropical enough, in my book. until my house is under a glacier this will be my paradigm. but other than that, agree with what you said.
HF 0041z21may