the eastpac invest.. it's more convincing than its atlantic counterpart. i have a feeling this 3 to 4 day old invest will generate a tropical cyclone. i'd say 50-60% on it.. that a tropical depression forms in 24-36hrs. potential implication is that it begins altering the downstream upper flow, sharpens the upper trough hanging from florida to central america, and causes more ridging in the caribbean. most of the convection down there is east of the model-favored area.. this either means that a shear-shunted system will form and hassle the islands (less likely in my mind) or that the development in the sw caribbean will be trudging and take days (more likely)... or possibly the broadness of the disturbed weather will keep the system unfocused and it won't develop (still most likely).
got to say though, i'm rooting for it. hasn't been a legitimate may atlantic tropical cyclone in over two decades. the timeframe i find it most likely an atlantic depression will form is late saturday-early sunday.
HF 0428z21may