i don't know why the epac system wasn't tagged 1E at 5pm. it's been putting up d1.5 for more than half a day now. guess they're waiting for the eyewall to form again. downstream implications if an eastpac system can get going.. agatha over there means that the upper trough in the nw caribbean may amplify or split.. upstream ridging in the caribbean regardless. tough to call on whether anything is really happening in the sw caribbean.. the convection is all north against the subtropical jet, or over land. it isn't going to develop inside 24hrs. need some offshore convection to persist south of the jet or this is just a rainy trough.
HF 2221z21may