a mess yes, no more organized than a few days ago (convection is a bit perkier though). still an e-w oriented trough, no real max on it. one of those mesoscale convective bursts may yet end up being the trigger.
more interesting is the implications of agatha upstream. agatha i feel will get a bit stronger than indicated on the official forecast.. think it will cause the upper trough in the nw caribbean to amplify, as well as the ridge in the rest of the caribbean.. maybe creating a more narrow jet max that would be ideal to vent a developing surface system. regardless it should keep the convection firing.. it's not unusual that an mlc type system, even on an easterly wave, gets a tropical system started.. not implicitly non-tropical origins (my take versus yours, scottsvb.. same result). for the current disturbance it's really just a matter of convection persisting over low level convergence.. both factors are there, just not aligned quite right at this time.
i'll hold at 35% right now.. this thing could still develop. not quite what was originally envisioned by modeling, but not that different. nrl dropped 90L, maybe they should slap it back up there.
HF 1828z22may