I'm having fun with the pre-season fine tuning stuff. Obviously my call from last weekend/early week that we'd see something late this week was off. Clearly the potential was there along with convection, but I was too fast. I mentioned that likelihood the day after I made my prediction. Obviously, that's not good enough. But hey, at least we had some pre-season stuff to watch. The key to any future tropical nature for the low pressure is the backing of the ULL across the SE Gulf. It's come a long way in the last two days, but it might be too little to late to salvage any face from Monday's prediction. Whether or not anything ultimately develops, I might still be able to get a little credit if the energy phases mid-week along the mid-Atlantic or NE Coast. Along with the potential energy, we had a potential teleconnection with Typhoon Nida. I'd put it at equal chances that the energy either heads off ENE-NE or phases with a trof just off the east coast and bombs out at least a little. That's the only solice I have left with this one unless the original ideas of a TS miraculously still go down. 20% on that at best? /buzzed

Steve