nudge system development chances up to 45%. the convective burst weakened and a weak low that appears to be closed (may just be a hairpin vorticity center) is drifting northward in its wake. it will die unless more convection fires, but there is now a significant amount of vorticity at the low levels near hispaniola. if it doesn't refire something else could originate in the area. the chances will be better if the convection to the east weakens and the trades can jam more energy into the area.
as some of the globals (and scottsvb yesterday) have suggested, watch the area north and northeast of hispaniola going into early next week. our current disturbance or its legacy may well be going official around then.
throwing this out now.. outside of a week (around the start of june) gfs wants to send another surge into the sw caribbean. globals are still transitioning the upper air flow in the basin.. there should be mostly ridging aloft in the caribbean in a week. that looks to be the next chance of development.. june 1-5 in the sw caribbean.
HF 1938z23may