91L... think this system was likely a depression or weak storm yesterday evening. same low center as today was there, with cumulonnimbus bursting on the northern periphery. i saw some 35-40kt rain flagged vectors and 20-25kt vectors on the western side on scatterometer (away from the center) in yesterday's passes. probably some stronger winds reaching the surface in the convection.. that's where i stand on that. i'm sketchy on calling it or assuming it is/was subtropical. purely tropical origin, just sheared. no frontal association, and it was convective yesterday. less so now, but i'd still hesitate to say it isn't a tropical system. it is moving into the subtropics now, though.. it's in a tropical airmass, but may take on non-tropical characteristics when/if it gets going.
plane arrives tomorrow, gives us a core profile.. if the convection remains removed doubt it will get further recognition. they'll probably cancel the recon if it looks like it does now when the sun comes up. i'd drop it to 40%.
the next shortwave won't go zipping by for another 36-48 hrs or so.. maybe it can improve its appearance in the lull.
HF 2252z25may