i guess i'll use the scale that ive seen on here so many times
DEVELOPMENT CHANCE:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
[--*----------------]
i am having a hard time seeing where the shear has weakened any to make a difference. also, the center is becomming less organized, the tstorms rapidly racing away from the weak center, and the overall structure is that of a non tropical low.
this one can probably be written off.
i think the first storm of the year will be between jun 15 and july 10.
evidence of weakening, the center is now entirely exposed and beginning to elongate
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
i am also lowering my storm forecast to 12 since one of the storms was forecast in may