that's a hell of a thorough outlook, steve. it's what we all do here.. use other people's ideas as a basis to develop our own. you went and took a whole lot of that stuff and condensed it into a pretty solid nugget, just then. thanks for throwing it out, 'cause i'm sure going to use it as a ref.
that aside, as always, won't go so far as to make such a massive season prediction. not because it may not be right, but because going all out will rarely get you the gold. last decade's trend has been HIGH activity, LOW impact. the preseason forecast i've been dragging with me since november is for a less-than-incredible 11/6/3 season. i have little faith in it (it's gonna be low); the landfall guesscast on the forum the other night is my intepretation of analog landfalls, and how i think the summer pattern will evolve (which is itself based mostly on temperature and height anomalies here in the u.s. and their teleconnections). in-head kind of stuff, not very credible. tell ya, you're putting me to shame with the solid, authority-based stuff.
models have backed off an that sw carib surge for next week.. slower development, not dropping it. not certain, but it may in fact be the pattern-split spawned thing steve keeps quoting bastardi on.
gray hits us again tomorrow. more to talk about. also, the day after tomorrow comes out.. the day before the day after tomorrow. expect armageddon with ocean currents instead of texas-sized asteroids. probably good for a laugh, unless you're convinced that al gore is an authority on anything.
HF 0146z28may