nothing on the horizon. expect the eastpac invest won't have time to do any developing (coast proximity+36hrs to cooler water=little/no development). upper trough in the far western atlantic down into the western caribbean is going to keep things capped down there for the next few days. fairly energetic wave nearing 50w has no chance for this same reason.. another wave far to the east emerging indicates only that the itcz is undergoing its normal evolution this time of year.. fairly energetic waves that collapse once offshore except far to the south. since 2000 there have been a few june/july depressions out there.. claudette formed closer in last year, and danny was in the subtropics... too early at this point.
i see the feature jb is eyeballing to move off the se over the weekend. doubt it will amount to much.. if it tries to bomb it will go extratropical.. upper trough will see to that.
gfs is showing a divergent area in the western caribbean early next week as the trough reorients. low-mid level ridging is strong by that point.. should be shoving any disturbed weather westward by that point. about a week from now the nw caribbean/gulf should finally start becoming more favorable for development. ridging should be locking back in in the eastern u.s. by then... heat is down a notch to normal here in the carolinas right now.. the anomalous heat of may should be closer to normal for the next couple of weeks.
thats my take right now anyhow.
hey to everybody. might be a while before we get anything, but we'll manage in the meantime.
HF 2130z02june