Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 03 2004 10:57 AM
Re: Gulf Next Week

>>Local Mets here in SW Louisiana are hinting at some possible action next week in the gulf. Any thoughts?

That was what we were alluding to last week. Supposedly a trof split (in progress) will dump a piece down in the Gulf along with a slow Southerly or Southeasterly flow setting up in the Gulf around or just after the 10th. I haven't looked at the long range models in a few days, but the GFS ensembles did hint at some activity. It's more a concern for late next week or weekend, and the GFS had it in the eastern gulf (with an overdone ridge in central TX which has been speculated to be more into New Mexico.

Lemme go see what the GFS is doing today:

MRF/GFS 10 Day Surface Pressure + Precip Amounts

Looks like the GFS is hinting at some action in both the western and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Whether that is deep tropical flow on both sides or a compromise for something more in the central gulf is debatable.

Here is the link to the NCEP depiction of the GFS Operationals which go out to about 384 hours:

GFS Operational Model



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