Interesting blob of convection down in the SW Caribbean coming off the coast of South America this am, no organization but some intense IR convection noted. The system is drifting off to the NW and gives us something to watch during the weekend. 92L, Thursdays surprise invest, appears to have fallen off the map and should not be a factor for any development, which is apropos for something this early in the season.

What does have my attention, and it’s a long shot no doubt, is the complex thunderstorm activity in the TX/OK area, migrating southward towards the GOM. Although its intensity has diminished a tad over the past several hours, daytime heating should crank things up again today… And if it holds together into long enough to make it to the GOM, and then becomes stationary over water, and starts to organize ….. then it could be our first scenario for any GOM development … within the next several days or so…. Be like betting against Smarty Jones losing today for any of these systems to come to fruition... then again