the sw caribbean does have a decent convective burst going on.. but low cloud movements don't have me thinking anything will get going with it. no real turning visible, just the log-jam look waves frequently get in that corner of the caribbean. still sketchy model rumblings for a gulf/nw caribbean system in a few days.. as there were rumblings for something right now a week and a half ago. the medium range forecast models haven't been as consistent as with the late may disturbance that killed all those people in hispaniola, so their future existence is a dubious notion for now.
i have a feeling that mjo is switched off right now, based on how convection is behaving in the basin. can't remember where that graphical loop showing it is.. just a hunch. there's westpac development right now.. usually means that we'll get an potential activity window in ten to twenty days on this side. that may, conveniently, coincide with model projected activity.
HF 1736z05june